imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2019-0-3-38-47imi-246Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESПотенциал Восточноазиатского региона в условиях перехода к модели роста, движимого внутренним потреблением: возможности для РоссииConsumer Potential of the East Asian Region: Contemporary Trends and Opportunities for RussiaАраповаЕ. Я.ArapovaE. Y.

Екатерина Яковлевна Арапова, канд. экон. Наук ; директор, вед. науч. сотр. Центра экспертизы санкционной политики; начальник Отдела академического развития Института международных исследований МГИМО МИД России

Ekaterina Y. Arapova, PhD (Economics); Director,  Leading Research Fellow, Center for Sanction Policy Expertise; Head, Department of Academic Development

arapova_katrin@mail.ruИнститут международных исследований МГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияInstitute for International Studies, MGIMO-UniversityRussian Federation201928092019033847Copyright © Арапова Е.Я., 20192019Арапова Е.Я.Arapova E.Y.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/246

Целью настоящей статьи является оценка потребительского потенциала Восточноазиатского региона в контексте диверсификации источников экономического роста и перехода к модели развития, движимого внутренним потреблением. Благоприятные социальные, демографические и экономические тенденции, а также проведение правительствами  и монетарными властями большинства государств региона политики, стимулирующей рост внутреннего спроса, влекут за собой стремительный рост вклада частного потребления в темпы экономического прироста, ведут к постепенной трансформации товарной структуры потребления и, как следствие, импортного спроса, что открывает новые возможности для экспортеров из третьих стран, в том числе России. 

Проведенный анализ позволил сделать ряд практических выводов. Учитывая потребительский потенциал и тенденции взаимной торговли, наибольший интерес для России представляют Китай и Вьетнам, в меньшей степени – Малайзия. В перспективе 5–10 лет – Таиланд, Индонезия и Филиппины. К ключевым бенефициарам роста потребительского потенциала Восточной Азии можно отнести российских металлургов, сельхозпроизводителей и машиностроителей в сферах тяжелого машиностроения: авиастроения, космического и энергетического машиностроения. 

The article aims at assessing consumer potential of the East Asian region in the context of diversification of economic growth sources and its transition to consumption-led economic growth model. Favorable social, demographic and economic trends, as well as demand-stimulating policies, implemented by governments and monetary authorities of the most of regional economies, entail a rapid increase in the private consumption contribution to economic growth, lead to a gradual transformation of the commodity structure of consumption, and import demand, which opens up new opportunities for exporters from the third countries, including Russia. The analysis made it possible to make a number of practical conclusions. Given consumer potential and mutual trade dynamics, China and Vietnam, to a lesser extent Malaysia, are of the greatest interest to Russia, while Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines’ potential can be implemented in medium-term perspective (5-10 years). Russian mining, agricultural and heavy engineering industries (mainly, aircraft, space and power engineering) can become the key beneficiaries of the growing consumer potential in East Asia.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.