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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">imi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Международная аналитика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal of International Analytics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-8476</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9633</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-4-56-71</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">imi-290</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Угроза применения обычных видов вооружений для ядерной безопасности: новая реальность с точки зрения сдерживания</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Раутенбах</surname><given-names>П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Rautenbach</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Питер Раутенбах, Магистр в области международных отношений</p><p>Houghton St, Holborn, London WC2A 2AE</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Peter James Mckenzie Rautenbach, MSc Candidate in International Relations</p><p>Houghton St, Holborn, London WC2A 2AE</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">peterjmrautenbach@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Лондонская школа экономики и политических наук<country>Великобритания</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">London School of Economics and Political Sciense<country>United Kingdom</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>02</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>11</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>56</fpage><lpage>71</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Раутенбах П., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Раутенбах П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Rautenbach P.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/290">https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/290</self-uri><abstract><p>В данной работе рассматривается тезис о том, что развитие систем «Быстрый глобальный удар» (БГУ) размывает ядерную стабильность. Соединенные Штаты разрабатывают подобный вид обычных вооружений для их применения на театре военных действий, однако вследствие этого грань между тактическим и стратегическим оружием становится размытой. В Конгрессе США ведутся дискуссии по проблемам неопределенности в ракетно-ядерной сфере, самая крупная из которых заключается в том, что системы БГУ по своей сути размывают ядерный паритет. Рассматривая поведение крупнейших государств, ставших главной причиной для создания систем БГУ в США, и сочетая это с ранее существовавшей литературой и пониманием различных аспектов проблематики ядерного нераспространения, автор исследует воздействие БГУ на ядерную стабильность. По сравнению с ракетами-носителями ядерных боеголовок, наличие у США рассматриваемых систем обычных вооружений по своей природе опасно, поскольку оно повышает как вероятность их применения, так и вероятность нанесения первого удара по системам ядерного сдерживания другого государства. Традиционно нанесение первого ядерного удара является практически невозможным, поскольку оно влечет за собой ответный удар. Если ядерное оружие может быть заменено на системы вооружений БГУ, то вероятность первого удара кратно возрастает. Следовательно, в результате изменения ядерной доктрины с учетом систем БГУ, снижается порог применения ядерного оружия. Этот факт демонстрирует явные признаки снижения ядерной безопасности и, как следствие, увеличения вероятности применения ядерного оружия.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This paper explores the idea that developments in Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) systems degrade nuclear security. The United States is developing such weapons for niche conventional use on the surface, but the line between tactical and strategic weapons is becoming blurred. What is more, while there have been discussions in Congress surrounding the problem of missile ambiguity, there is a multitude of other problems, with the largest being that CPGS weapons inherently degrade nuclear security. By looking at the behavior of critical states and actors involved in the emergence of CPGS weapons and combining this with pre-existing literature and insight on similar topics within international relations, we then can conduct a thorough investigation on the impact of these CPGA systems. When compared to nuclear missiles, the increasing usability of these weapons is inherently dangerous, as it increases both the likelihood of their use and the likelihood of a first strike against another state’s nuclear deterrent. Traditionally, conducting a first strike has been all but impossible because it entailed using nuclear weapons, which come with ethical and environmental consequences. If nuclear weapons can be replaced or substituted with CPGS weapons, then a first strike becomes an actual possibility. Hence, as a result, the nuclear doctrine is changing to reflect this conventional danger and has led to a lower threshold for nuclear use. This fact then demonstrates clear signs that CPGS technology degrades nuclear security and thus increases the chance of nuclear use.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>БГУ</kwd><kwd>сдерживание</kwd><kwd>ядерное оружие</kwd><kwd>первый удар</kwd><kwd>обычные вооружения</kwd><kwd>возникающие технологии</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>BSU</kwd><kwd>deterrence</kwd><kwd>nuclear weapons</kwd><kwd>first strike</kwd><kwd>conventional weapons</kwd><kwd>emerging technologies</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Acton, James M. Silver Bullet? 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