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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">imi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Международная аналитика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal of International Analytics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-8476</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9633</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-3-78-94</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">imi-296</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>США в мире соперничающих великих держав</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The United States in a World of Great Power Competition</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Манкофф</surname><given-names>Дж.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mankoff</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Джеффри Манкофф, Заслуженный научный сотрудник</p><p>Вашингтон, 20319-5066</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jeffrey Mankoff, Distinguished Research Fellow</p><p>Washington, DC, 20319-5066</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">jeffrey.a.mankoff.civ@ndu.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Национальный университет обороны (NDU), Институт национальных стратегических исследований<country>Соединённые Штаты Америки</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">National Defense University (NDU), Institute for National Strategic Studies<country>United States</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>12</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>11</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>78</fpage><lpage>94</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Манкофф Д., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Манкофф Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Mankoff J.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/296">https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/296</self-uri><abstract><p>Принятая в 2017 г. Стратегия национальной безопасности зафиксировала поворот Вашингтона к «конкуренции с великими державами» в качестве концептуальной основы внешней политики США. Этот переход представляет собой признание того, что «бесконечные войны» на Ближнем Востоке оказались дорогостоящим, стратегически сомнительным отвлечением внимания от более насущного вызова, исходящего от «ревизионистской России» и растущего Китая. На восприятие конкуренции с великими державами влияет опыт холодной войны – именно тогда США столкнулись с равным по потенциалу конкурентом. Однако холодная война была исключением из истории внешней политики США, продуктом очень специфических обстоятельств, которые вряд ли повторятся в XXI веке. Существует опасность рассматривать холодную войну как типичный пример конкуренции великих держав или использовать ее в качестве шаблона для внешней политики США в XXI веке. Для того чтобы такая страна, как Соединенные Штаты, вступила в новый этап соперничества с великими державами, Китаем и Россией, её руководству необходимо убедить американскую общественность в том, что риски для национальной безопасности – высоки. Без идеологических отсылок к эпохе холодной войны, вероятно, властям США будет трудно поддерживать общественную поддержку проактивной стратегии сдерживания китайского и российского влияния. Автор приходит к выводу, что в США, скорее всего, возобладают изоляционистские настроения, и Америка будет стремиться оградить себя от опасностей мира, перекладывая военно-политическое бремя сопротивления расширению китайского и российского влияния на других игроков.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The adoption of the 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) marked Washington’s official pivot to “great power competition” as the conceptual framework for U.S. foreign policy. The shift to great power competition as the foundation for U.S. foreign policy represents an acknowledgment that the “forever wars” in the Middle East had become an expensive, strategically dubious distraction from the more pressing challenge posed by a revanchist Russia and a rising China. The template for much of the “new” thinking about great power competition is the Cold War – the last time the U.S. faced a peer competitor – whose shadow hangs over much thinking about U.S. policy toward Beijing and Moscow. In many ways, though, the Cold War was an outlier in the history of U.S. foreign policy, a product of very specific circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated in the 21st century. A danger exists in seeing the Cold War as a typical example of great power competition, or in using it as a template for U.S. foreign policy in the 21st century. Great power competition is usually a chronic condition, which is to say, more or less incurable. In order for a country like the United States to enter a new era of great power competition with China and Russia, it will need to convince the American public that the stakes are high and the dangers are great enough to justify the costs. Without the ideological or existential stakes of the Cold War, public support for an assertive strategy of containing Chinese and Russian influence will likely be hard to maintain. Rather, the U.S. is likely to continue the reversion toward its pre-Cold War pattern of seeking to insulate itself from the dangers of the world, and increasingly pass the burden of resisting the expansion of Chinese and Russian influence to others.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Конкуренция великих держав</kwd><kwd>внешняя политика США</kwd><kwd>холодная война</kwd><kwd>Россия</kwd><kwd>Китай</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Great power competition</kwd><kwd>U.S. foreign policy</kwd><kwd>Cold War</kwd><kwd>Russia</kwd><kwd>China</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Allison, Graham. Destined for War? Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2017.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Allison, Graham. Destined for War? Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? 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