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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">imi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Международная аналитика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal of International Analytics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-8476</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9633</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-3-113-128</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">imi-298</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Риски пограничной нестабильности: российско-эстонский казус</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Risking Border Instability: the Russian-Estonian Case</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Жоликер</surname><given-names>П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Jolicoeur</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Пьер Жоликер, доктор философии</p><p>K7K 7B4, PO Box 17000</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Pierre Jolicoeur, PhD</p><p>K7K 7B4, PO Box 17000, Station Forces</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">pierre.jolicoeur@rmc.ca</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лабарр</surname><given-names>Ф.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Labarre</surname><given-names>F.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Фредерик Лабарр, кандидат на получение степени доктора философии</p><p>K7K 7B4, PO Box 17000</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Frederic Labarre, PhD candidate</p><p>K7K 7B4, PO Box 17000, Station Forces</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">frederic.labarre@rmc.ca</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Королевский военный колледж Канады (Кингстон)<country>Канада</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Royal Military College of Canada (Kingston)<country>Canada</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>12</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>11</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>113</fpage><lpage>128</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Жоликер П., Лабарр Ф., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Жоликер П., Лабарр Ф.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Jolicoeur P., Labarre F.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/298">https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/298</self-uri><abstract><p>Международные отношения последние три десятилетия были отмечены тенденциями к национальной и институциональной фрагментации. Судьба Югославии и Советского Союза, а также печальный их исход (особенно в первом случае) может постигнуть и другие федеративные образования. Возникают примеры Канады и Бельгии, а также Испании, которые эффективно функционируют как федерации. Такие образования обычно имеют механизмы урегулирования споров, особенно вопросов отделения, заложенных в их конституциях, однако субконституционные территории часто исключаются из таких концептуальных рамок. Такие территории, как Косово, Санджак, Абхазия, Южная Осетия объединяет то, что они разделяют стремление к независимости от своей материнской страны. Однако достижение независимости будет представлять риски для территориальной целостности других стран (принцип домино), а также риски для устойчивости «гибкого» международного права. Те случаи, о которых мы говорили выше, завершились крымским кризисом. Проблемы между Эстонией и Российской Федерацией проистекают из выбора обоснования прецедента, на котором основываются приграничные территориальные вопросы независимой Эстонии. Хотя Эстония была основана на основе Тартуского мирного договора 1920 г., положившего конец войне за независимость страны, ее опыт как Советской Республики добавил еще один законодательный фильтр в виде Конституции Советского Союза 1977 г. Однако принцип uti possidetis эволюционировал и стал применяться не только к случаям колониализма. Таким образом, когда Эстония отделилась от СССР в границах, существовавших с 1945 г., она делала это по принципу uti possidetis. Нынешний спор связан с тем, что эстонская политическая элита добивается признания Тартуского мирного договора 1920 г. в качестве основополагающего документа для восстановления независимости страны. Согласно Тартускому договору, эстонский суверенитет распространялся на гораздо большую территорию. Настаивая на том, чтобы любое новое пограничное соглашение с Россией основывалось на этом договоре, Эстония лишает законной силы принцип uti possidetis и действительность Конституции Советского Союза как средства достижения независимости. Это несет в себе риск задействования статьи 5 Североатлантического договора в отношениях между Россией и НАТО и угрожает легитимности других случаев сепаратизма на постсоветском пространстве.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>In international relations, the last three decades have been marked by national and institutional fragmentation. The fate of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, and the regrettable way that events played out (especially in the former case), could befall other federative entities as well. Canada and Belgium come to mind, as do countries like Spain, all of which effectively function as federations. However, while federations usually have dispute settlement and mechanisms for secession embedded in their constitutions, sub-constitutive territories are often excluded from such considerations. What territories such as Kosovo, Sandjak, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, etc. have in common is that they share a desire for independence from their parent country. However, achiveing independence would present risks to the territorial integrity of other countries (what can be termed the domino principle), as well as risks to the endurance of flexible international law. The cases we have alluded to above culminated in the Crimean crisis. The problems between Estonia and the Russian Federation stem from the choice of precedent and founding text on which to base the former’s renewed independence. While Estonia was founded on the basis of the 1920 Tartu Peace Treaty that put an end to the country’s War of Independence, its experience as a Soviet Republic added another legislative filter in the form of the 1977 Constitution of the Soviet Union. However, the principle of uti possidetis had evolved to apply to more than cases of colonialism. Thus, when Estonia seceded from the USSR with the borders it had been since 1945, it was doing so under the principle of uti possidetis. The current dispute stems from the fact that the Estonian political elite seek to have the 1920 Tartu Peace Treaty recognized as the foundational document for the country’s renewed independence. Under the Treaty, Estonian sovereignty applied over a much larger territory. By insisting that any new border arrangement with Russia be based on that Treaty, Estonia is invalidating the principle of uti possidetis and the validity of the Constitution of the Soviet Union as a vehicle for independence. It implies a latent Article 5 situation between NATO and Russia, and threatens the legitimacy of other post-Soviet secessions.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Uti possidetis</kwd><kwd>Крым</kwd><kwd>Украина</kwd><kwd>Эстония</kwd><kwd>Конституция Советского Союза</kwd><kwd>Тартуский мирный договор</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Uti possidetis</kwd><kwd>Crimea</kwd><kwd>Ukraine</kwd><kwd>Estonia</kwd><kwd>Constitution of the Soviet Union</kwd><kwd>Tartu Peace Treaty</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Duursma, Jorri. Fragmentation and International Relations of Micro-States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Duursma, Jorri. Fragmentation and International Relations of Micro-States. 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