imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-3-129-150imi-299Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESМногосторонность и национализм в эпоху кризиса: глобальная пандемия и международная политикаMultilateralism and Nationalism in an Era of Disruption: the Great Pandemic and International Politicshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6678-8820СакваР.SakwaR.

Ричард Саква, профессор российской и европейской политики

Кент, Соединенное Королевство, CT2 7NZ

ResearcherID: H-3082-2016

Scopus AuthorID: 6506132065

Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics

Kent, England, CT2 7NZ

ResearcherID: H-3082-2016

Scopus AuthorID: 6506132065

r.sakwa@kent.ac.ukКентский университетВеликобританияUniversity of Kent, CanterburyUnited Kingdom202030122020113129150Copyright © Саква Р., 20202020Саква Р.Sakwa R.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/299

Глобальная пандемия 2020 г. стала источником потрясений для международной системы. Но стала ли она причиной её перестройки и изменения логики внешнеполитического поведения игроков на международной арене? Анализ последствий пандемии показывает, что она лишь ускорила существующие тенденции, но не привела к каким-либо существенным преобразованиям. Трехуровневая международная система, созданная после 1945 года, сохраняет свою структуру, но борьба между двумя конкурирующими моделями мирового порядка (либеральным международным порядком и группой суверенных незападных держав) усилилась и может закрепить зарождающуюся новую биполярность. Принцип многосторонности в международных делах уже давно находится под угрозой, но его деградация ускорилась по мере того, как такие органы, как ВОЗ, столкнулись с проблемой борьбы с пандемией коронавируса, а возрождение национализма ускорило процесс деглобализации. Легитимность государства как единственного эффективного субъекта, способного преодолеть глобальный кризис, была переоценена. Но это сопровождалось усилением национал-популистских вызовов не только либеральному универсализму, но и суверенному интернационализму. Возвращение великодержавной конкуренции влечет за собой эрозию «плотных» структур международного сообщества, сложившихся в послевоенные годы, и может свидетельствовать о возвращении к похожему на венский периоду, подошедшему к концу в первые годы XX столетия. Критика ООН и других многосторонних институтов Ялтинско-Потсдамской системы означает, что борьба между соперничающими моделями мирового порядка будет сдерживаться ограждениями международной системы в меньшей степени, и поэтому «новая холодная война» вполне может оказаться более опасной, чем противостояние СССР и США.

The Great Pandemic of 2020 has caused a shock to international politics. But has it forced a radical restructuring of the international system and a change in the way international actors behave? a survey of the effects of the pandemic demonstrates that it has sped up existing trends, but has not brought about any transformation. The three-tier international system established after 1945 survives, but the struggle between two contesting models of global order (the Atlantic power system and the associated liberal international order and the alignment of sovereign internationalist powers) has intensified to consolidate a nascent new bipolarity in international affairs. Multilateralism has long been under threat, but its degradation has accelerated as bodies such as the World Health Organization have been challenged over their handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the dangers of distant supply chains and the recrudescence of nationalism have accelerated deglobalisation. The legitimacy of state action has been revalidated as the only effective actor in handling the crisis. But this has been accompanied by the intensification of national populist challenges not only to liberal universalism, but also to sovereign internationalism. The return of great power politics entails the accelerated erosion of the dense structures of the international community developed in the post-war years, and signals a return to the period when a previous international system (the Vienna order established in 1815) came to an end in the early years of the 20t h century. Attacks on the UN and other multilateral institutions of the Yalta era means that the struggle between the rival models of world order will be less constrained by the guardrails of the international system, and thus the Second Cold War may well be more dangerous than the first.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.