imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-1-132-145imi-319Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESРеализм по-польски: политика Польши в отношении бывших советских республик, 1991–2021 гг.Polish Take on Realism: Poland’s Policy Towards the Former Soviet Countries, 1991–2021ШептицкийА.SzeptyckiA.

Анджей Шептицкий, профессор кафедры стратегических исследований и международной безопасности, Факультет политических наук и международных исследований

ul. Żurawia 4, комната 406, 40700-503

Andrzej Szeptycki, Professor, Department of Strategic Studies and International Security, Faculty of Political Science and International Studies,

ul. Żurawia 4, room 406, 40700-503 Warszawa

andrzej.szeptycki@uw.edu.plВаршавский университетПольшаUniversity of WarsawPoland202119022021121132145Copyright © Шептицкий А., 20212021Шептицкий А.Szeptycki A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/319

В статье анализируется восточный вектор политики Польши в отношении постсоветского пространства через теорию реализма международных отношений. В первой части статьи рассматриваются ключевые положения реалисткой теории международных отношений, во второй – существующая литература о внешней политике Польши. В третьей части автор рассматривает детерминанты политики Польши в отношении постсоветских государств (история ее отношений с регионом, идеологические основы ее политики, существующие вопросы безопасности и т.д.). В последней части автор задается вопросом об эволюции политики Польши до настоящего времени. Российская Федерация воспринимается Польшей как значительная угроза. В этом контексте с начала 1990-х гг. Польша искала решения для укрепления своей безопасности. Она стремилась присоединиться к Североатлантическому альянсу и установить тесное партнерство с Соединенными Штатами (в реалистской парадигме – примыкание, bandwagoning). Эта стратегия принесла существенный эффект: в 1999 г. Польша вступила в НАТО и с тех пор на ее территории размещены войска союзников. Польша также стремилась развивать сотрудничество с Украиной (в большей степени, чем с другими постсоветскими соседями) и приблизить их к евроатлантическим структурам. Эта политика была направлена, в частности, на ослабление влияния России в регионе (в реалистской парадигме – балансирование, balancing). Однако результаты этой стратегии оказались неоднозначными. Несмотря на то что Украина отвергла продвигаемые Россией проекты реинтеграции в постсоветское пространство, процесс реформ в этой стране идет медленно. Что касается других постсоветских государств, то Польша в основном оказалась неспособной повлиять на желаемые политические изменения в этих странах.

This article analyzes Poland’s policy towards the former Soviet space (Poland’s Eastern policy) through the assumptions of the realist theory of international relations. The fi rst part of the article examines the realist theory in international relations (IR). The second – deals with the existing literature on Poland’s foreign policy. The third part analyses the determinants and the goals of Poland’s policy towards the post-Soviet states (history of its relations with the region, ideological determinants, security concerns, etc.). The last part inquires about the evolution of Poland’s policy till current times. The Russian Federation is perceived as a signifi cant threat by Poland. In that context, since the early 1990s, Poland has been seeking solutions to strengthen its security. It aimed to join the North Atlantic Alliance and establish a close partnership with the United States (bandwagoning). This strategy brought substantial eff ects – in 1999, Poland joined NATO, and since it has hosted allied troops. Poland also wanted to develop cooperation with Ukraine (to a lesser degree also with its other post-Soviet neighbors) and bring them closer to the Euro-Atlantic structures. This policy was, in particular, at weakening Russia’s infl uence in the region (balancing). The results of this strategy have been somewhat ambiguous, though. Ukraine has rejected Russia’s sponsored reintegration projects in the post-Soviet space. The process of reforms in that country, however, is slow and uncertain. As for other post-Soviet states, Poland has largely proven unable to infl uence the desired changes.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.