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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">imi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Международная аналитика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal of International Analytics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-8476</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9633</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-2-31-48</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">imi-323</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Северокорейское чудо: 30 лет выживания в условиях кризиса и изоляции</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>North Korean Miracle: 30 Уears of Surviving Crisis and Isolation</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0876-880X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ланьков</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lankov</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андрей Николаевич Ланьков, к.ист.н., профессор</p><p>77 Jeongneung-ro, Jeongneung-dong, Seongbuk-gu Сеул, Республика Корея StartFragment </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrei N. Lankov, Professor</p><p>77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Korea</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">andreilankov@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Университет Кукмин</aff><aff xml:lang="en">Kookmin University</aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day><month>03</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>31</fpage><lpage>48</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Ланьков А.Н., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Ланьков А.Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lankov A.N.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/323">https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/323</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье рассматриваются факторы, которые позволили северокорейскому режиму семьи Ким сохранять власть на протяжении десятилетий в исключительно неблагоприятных условиях. В современной политологии принято считать, что авторитарный режим сталкивается с тремя видами угроз: угрозой элитного заговора, угрозой массового выступления и угрозой внешнего вторжения. В статье демонстрируется, что в случае с КНДР, которая является частью разделенной страны, потенциальная угроза массового выступления выше, чем в большинстве авторитарных режимов, однако властям удается ее нейтрализовать с помощью политики информационной самоизоляции, дополненной мерами административно-полицейского контроля. С другой стороны, существующая угроза поглощения бедного Севера богатым Югом во многом обеспечивает единство элит и снижает вероятность возникновения заговоров, которые статистически являются главной опасностью для современной автократии. Элиты понимают, что даже успешный переворот может спровоцировать коллапс северокорейской государственности, после которого у представителей нынешней элиты будет мало шансов сохранить свою власть и привилегии. На единство элиты работают также и историко-культурные факторы. Наконец, угроза внешнего вторжения (или же внешнего вмешательства во внутриполитический кризис) успешно нейтрализуется путем создания собственного потенциала ядерного сдерживания. Северокорейское руководство и, шире, элита в целом существуют в условиях экзистенциальной угрозы, созданной расколом страны и феноменальным экономическим успехом Юга, поэтому ради обеспечения политической стабильности элита готова жертвовать перспективами экономического развития. Вдобавок в рамках существующей системы руководство северокорейской автократии может во многом игнорировать настроения масс. Все это создает ситуацию, в которой власть может поддерживать стабильность в течение долгого времени и в самых неблагоприятных условиях.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article examines those factors that allowed the Kim family regime to stay in power in extremely unfavorable environment. In political science literature, it is generally accepted that an authoritarian regime faces three major threats: an elite conspiracy/coup, a mass protest, a foreign invasion. The article demonstrates that in the case of the DPRK, which is a much poorer part of a divided country, the potential threat of mass popular protests might be higher than in many other authoritarian regimes. However, the autocrat and his entourage successfully counter this threat by exercising an unusually thorough policy of informational self-isolation, further reinforced by strict administrative control and police surveillance. On the other hand, the ever present threat of Seoul-led “uniﬁcation-by-absorption” strengthens the elites’ unity and reduces the likelihood of conspiracies. This is important since elite conspiracies and coups have constituted the major danger for post-1945 autocracies. North Korean elites understand that even a successful coup can eventually provoke the outbreak of popular discontent, followed by the collapse of North Korean statehood and German-style uniﬁcation under Seoul’s control. Under this scenario, conspiracy’s winners and losers will perish alike, with all members of the current elite having little chance to retain their power and privileges. Hence, the elite has reasons not to “rock the boat.” Finally, the threat of a foreign invasion (or foreign intervention into a domestic crisis) is successfully neutralized by the existence of a nuclear deterrent. Since the North Korean faces a grave existential threat which is created by the existence of the South, it is ready to sacriﬁce the economic development for the sake of political stability. Hence, the elite is willing to invest large resources into military programs and overlook the diﬃculties the self-isolation and other survival-oriented policies create for the economic development of the country.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>авторитаризм</kwd><kwd>стабильность режима</kwd><kwd>Северная Корея</kwd><kwd>Ким Чен Ын</kwd><kwd>КНДР</kwd><kwd>ядерное оружие</kwd><kwd>сдерживание</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>authoritarianism</kwd><kwd>regime stability</kwd><kwd>North Korea</kwd><kwd>Kim Jong Un</kwd><kwd>DPRK</kwd><kwd>nuclear weapons</kwd><kwd>deterrence</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Frantz, Erica, and Natasha Ezrow. The Politics of Dictatorship: Institutions and Outcomes in Authoritarian Regimes. 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