imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-1-55-73imi-329Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESВлияние перемен периода перестройки на становление политических систем стран Центральной Азии: чувство угрозы и авторитаризмOrigins of the Differences in Political Systems of the Central Asian States: Threat Perception in the Perestroika PeriodУямаТ.UyamaTomohiko

Томохико Уяма, профессор Центра славянско-евразийских исследований

Саппоро, Kita 9, Nishi 7, Kita-ku 060-0809

Tomohiko Uyama, Professor, Slavic-Eurasian Research Center, Faculty Member, Studies Central Asian Studies, RussianHistory, and Comparative Politics

Sapporo, Kita 9, Nishi 7, Kita-ku 060-0809

uyama@slav.hokudai.ac.jpУниверситет ХоккайдоЯпония2021140420211215573Copyright © Уяма Т., 20212021Уяма Т.Uyama T.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/329

Автор, адаптируя концепцию «эффекта колеи» и тезис Д. Слейтера о консолидации элит вокруг общенациональных угроз, исследует факторы, влиявшие на формирование в странах Центральной Азии различных авторитарных политических систем. Критическую роль в становлении политических систем в этом регионе играли события с середины 1980-х гг. до распада Советского Союза. Что касается структуры исследования, в статье последовательно разбирается, как межнациональные и другие политические конфликты продемонстрировали (не)способность лидеров справляться с кризисными ситуациями. В частности, показывается, что неспособность противостоять политическим вызовам в Киргизии положила начало «плюрализму по умолчанию». Вмешательство союзного центра в кадровый вопрос в республиках, особенно в Узбекистане и Казахстане, нанесло ущерб местным элитам и повысило общее чувство угрозы для политической стабильности, которое в конечном счете сплотило элиты и породило у них ожидания сильного лидера. Там, где новый национальный лидер воспринимал угрозы со стороны своих политических конкурентов (в Узбекистане), установилась особенно жесткая вертикаль власти. Напротив, существование сильной оппозиции мешало быстрому установлению авторитаризма. Так, в Таджикистане раскол элиты привел к гражданской войне, но вследствие большей устойчивости ее правительственного крыла президенту страны удалось впоследствии установить жесткую авторитарную власть. В Туркменистане лидер страны воспользовался отсутствием угроз для установления диктатуры. Таким образом, внешние вызовы способствуют сплочению элит, а риски внутренней конкуренции – сосредоточению власти в руках авторитарного лидера. Напротив, умеренные, но продолжительные угрозы раскалывают элиты и приводят к образованию относительно демократичной, но нестабильной системы государственной власти.

Using the “path-dependence” concept and D. Slater’s thesis on the consolidation of elites around national threats, the author examines the factors infl uencing the formation of diff erent authoritarian political systems in the Central Asian states. A critical aspect of the formation of political systems in this region was the events from the mid-1980s to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In terms of the structure of the study, the article consistently examines how interethnic and other political confl icts demonstrated the (un)ability of leaders to cope with crises. In particular, it shows that the inability to cope with political challenges in Kyrgyzstan marked the beginning of “pluralism by default.” Moscow’s involvement in the personnel issues in the republics, especially in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, undermined local elites and increased the overall sense of threat to political stability, which eventually rallied elites and gave rise to expectations of a strong leader. We also note that a notably fortifi ed power hierarchy was established where the new national leader perceived threats from his political rivals (in Uzbekistan). Conversely, the existence of a strong opposition prevented the rapid establishment of authoritarianism. In Tajikistan, for example, a split of the elite led to a civil war, but due to the greater stability of its governmental wing, the president subsequently managed to establish a hard authoritarian regime. In Turkmenistan, the country’s leader took advantage of the lack of threats to establish a dictatorship. Thus, external challenges contribute to the consolidation of elites, while the risks of internal competition contribute to the concentration of power in the hands of an authoritarian leader. On the contrary, prolonged threats divide elites, lead to mass confl icts or the formation of a relatively democratic but unstable system of state power.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.