imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-1-74-95imi-336Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESОткрытый финал войны за югославское наследство: последствия распада СФРЮ спустя три десятилетияThe Open End of the War of Yugoslav Legacy: the Consequences of the Dissolution of the SFRY Three Decades LaterЕфременкоД. В.YefremenkoD. V.

Дмитрий Валерьевич Ефременко, д.пол.н., заместитель директора

117418, Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 51/21

Dmitry V. Yefremenko, Doctor of Political Science, Deputy Director

Moscow, Nakhimovsky prospect, 51/21, 117418

efdv2015@mail.ruИнститут научной информации по общественным наукам РАНРоссияInstitute of Scientifi c Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2021140420211217495Copyright © Ефременко Д.В., 20212021Ефременко Д.В.Yefremenko D.V.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/336

В статье рассматриваются динамика и перспективы разрешения основных конфликтов в регионе Западных Балкан спустя три десятилетия после распада Югославии. Важнейшими факторами, влияющими на конфликтную динамику в регионе, являются этнонационализм, этническая гомогенизация и внешнее вмешательство. Вмешательство Запада позволило остановить военные действия, но в то же время оно фактически закрепило результаты этнической гомогенизации. Сербо-хорватский конфликт близок к своему исчерпанию в силу фактической поддержки Западом операции «Буря» (1995), исхода из Хорватии более 200 тысяч сербов, интеграции Хорватии в НАТО и Европейский союз. Несмотря на негативный груз исторической памяти, и Загреб, и Белград в двусторонних отношениях все в большей степени руководствуются политической прагматикой и взвешенными оценками качественно изменившейся ситуации. На этом фоне дейтонская модель государственного устройства Боснии и Герцеговины, выстроенная на основе институциональных сделок акторов, представляющих конкурирующие этнокультурные сообщества, демонстрирует свою дисфункциональность. Взаимодействие и сотрудничество этих акторов в основном остается вынужденным, осуществляемым под внешним контролем и давлением. Создание и неполное признание международным сообществом второго албанского государства – Косово*  – не привело к урегулированию албанского вопроса в масштабах всего западнобалканского региона. В косовских реалиях слабость институциональных традиций приводит к тому, что привнесение извне формальных институтов активизирует политическое структурирование, но происходит оно таким образом, что неформальные структуры и отношения не вытесняются, а в конечном счете подменяют содержание формальных институтов. В перспективе Косово может сформировать настолько плотную сеть связей с Албанией, что признание их единства окажется вопросом времени и политической целесообразности для отдельных государств и надгосударственных объединений. В то же время албанское меньшинство в Северной Македонии и Черногории может стать фактором дестабилизации этих государств. Перспектива интеграции различных стран региона в западные союзы не устраняет остающегося конфликтного потенциала. Скорее, западные альянсы идут по пути интериоризации этих конфликтов. Проекция либерально-демократических норм и ценностей на постъюгославское пространство чаще всего получает имитационный отклик со стороны местных элит. В этих условиях признание региональных реалий, в том числе доминирования этнонационалистических установок над ценностями плюралистической и мультиэтничной демократии, в сочетании с международным контролем могло бы сыграть позитивную роль в поисках эффективного урегулирования конфликтов. 

The article examines the dynamics and prospects of resolving the main confl icts in the Western Balkans three decades after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The most important factors infl uencing the confl ict dynamics in the region are ethnonationalism, ethnic homogenization and external interference. Western intervention made it possible to stop hostilities, but at the same time it actually consolidated the results of ethnic homogenization. The Serbo-Croatian confl ict is close to its exhaustion due to the actual support of the West for Operation “Storm” (1995), the exodus of more than 200 thousand Serbs from Croatia, the integration of Croatia into NATO and the European Union. Despite the negative burden of historical memory, both Zagreb and Belgrade in bilateral relations are increasingly guided by political pragmatism and balanced assessments of the qualitatively changed situation. Against this background, the Dayton model of state structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina, built on the basis of institutional transactions of actors representing competing ethnocultural communities, demonstrates its dysfunctionality. The interaction and cooperation of these actors remain largely limited, carried out under external control and pressure. Regarding the structure of the article, the author, fi rst, discusses some general issues contributing to the enduring confl ict in the Western Balkans; second, the article examines the prospects of antagonism between the Serbs and Croats; third, I analyze the impact of the Dayton Accords on the post-Yugoslav space. I conclude that scenarios for the future of the Western Balkans, to which the European Union and the United States are oriented, do not lead to the elimination of the causes of major confl icts in the post-Yugoslav space and obviously diverge in essential points from the images of the desired future that correspond to the aspirations of a signifi cant part of the population in the region.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.