imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-3-19-37imi-382Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLES«Рассеянная супердержава»: внешняя политика США в постбиполярном мире“Disoriented Superpower”: U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Bipolar WorldРеброО. И.RebroO. I.

Ольга Игоревна Ребро, эксперт Центра перспективных американских исследований ИМИ

119454, Москва, проспект Вернадского, д. 76.

Olga I. Rebro, Expert at the Center for Advanced American Studies of the Institute of International Studies

119454, Moscow, Vernadsky Prospekt, 76

olgarebro@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3551-7256СучковМ. А.SuchkovM. A.

Максим Александрович Сучков, кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры прикладного анализа международных проблем, директор Центра перспективных американских исследований ИМИ

119454, Москва, проспект Вернадского, д. 76.

Maxim A. Suchkov, PhD, Associate Professor at the Department of Applied International Analysis, Director of the Center for Advanced American Studies of the Institute of International Studies

119454, Moscow, Vernadsky Prospekt, 76

max-suchov@yandex.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO-UniversityRussian Federation2021201020211231937Copyright © Ребро О.И., Сучков М.А., 20212021Ребро О.И., Сучков М.А.Rebro O.I., Suchkov M.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/382

Глубокие трансформации международной системы при доминирующей роли США в последние тридцать лет дали богатую пищу для исследований в американистике, которые можно условно разделить на две группы: изучение детерминант стратегической культуры США, определяющих систему координат действий Вашингтона на международной арене, и разбор процесса принятия решений с определением интересов и мотивов ключевых центров силы, способный предсказать практические шаги американского руководства по конкретным вопросам. Данная статья стремится объединить эти два уровня и, отталкиваясь от концепции, предложенной К. Хеммером, предлагает рассматривать внешнюю политику США как результат внутриполитических дебатов по трем магистральным темам: определение периметра безопасности, динамики отношений с международными институтами и оптимальных способов продвижения ценностей. В центре исследования лежит тезис о том, что ключевой характеристикой международной среды последних тридцати лет, с точки зрения Вашингтона, стало отсутствие единой угрозы как организующего фактора внешнеполитического планирования. В результате на фоне сокращения внимания американцев к международным делам внешняя политика стала областью для оппортунистических решений, принятых под влиянием обстоятельств и электоральных расчетов. Авторы заключают, что внешнеполитические ошибки были совершены не в периоды ожесточенных дебатов о внешней политике, а в отсутствие таковых. Текущие социально-политические пертурбации, в рамках которых каждый постулат подвергается сомнению, а также фокусирование всего внешнеполитического аппарата на единой угрозе в лице Китая позволяют надеяться на то, что период «рассеянности» в американской внешней политике подходит к концу и из турбулентного периода глубокого самоанализа Америка выйдет более ответственным международным актором.

This article seeks to fi ll the gap between well theorized upon constants of the U.S. strategic thinking and the divergent approaches of various administrations to practical actions on the international arena. Grounded in the concept developed by Christopher Hammer, the analysis presents the U.S. foreign policy as the product of a never-ending internal debate about the most optimal ways of promoting values, dealing with international institutions and prioritizing threats within a security perimeter. Taking stock of the choices made by consecutive presidents in each of the three areas the authors study the roots of foreign policy inertia of the sole superpower that resulted in unforced mistakes undermining its own political cohesion as well as hindering the emergence of lasting international architecture to replace the cold-war order. Thus, the article argues that the key feature of the last thirty years – the absence of an enemy as an organizing principle for the U.S. foreign policy – prompted the American public to pay less attention to global events which became the area of opportunistic decisions. Overall, the authors conclude that the mistakes were made precisely when the domestic debates in the U.S. about international relations were absent and note that the current divisions in the American society as an impetus for self-scrutiny and the emergence of China as a focal point for the American elites may result in a more coherent foreign policy and make the U.S. a more responsible international actor.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.