imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2022-13-2-95-106imi-426Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESКосмос как пространство соперничества: угрозы и возможностиSpace as a Competition Domain: Threats and Opportunitieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8694-8040СтефановичД. В.StefanovichD. V.

Стефанович Дмитрий Викторович, научный сотрудник Центра международной безопасности

Москва, Россия, ул. Профсоюзная, 23. 117997

Dmitry V. Stefanovich, Research Fellow, Center for International Security

117997, Moscow, ul. Profsoyuznaya, 23

stefanovich@imemo.ruПоррасД.PorrasD.

Дэниел Поррас, Директор по стратегическим партнерствам и коммуникациям

1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Вашингтон, округ Колумбия, 20036

Daniel Porras, Director of Strategic Partnerships and Communications

, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20036

dporras@swfound.orgНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАН (ИМЭМО РАН)РоссияPrimakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationSecure World FoundationСоединённые Штаты АмерикиSecure World FoundationUnited States20222706202213295106Copyright © Стефанович Д.В., Поррас Д., 20222022Стефанович Д.В., Поррас Д.Stefanovich D.V., Porras D.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/426

В статье поднимаются проблемы возможного соперничества и сотрудничества между крупными державами в космическом пространстве. Великие державы соперничали в космосе с самого начала космической эры. Сегодня вновь актуальна проблема боевых действий в космосе, но теперь игроков больше, чем две державы, и сегодня наблюдается гораздо большая зависимость гражданской инфраструктуры от космических технологий. Теоретические угрозы космической войны в статье будут проанализированы путем оценки возможных целей, вызовов и угроз великих держав в потенциальной космической войне. В статье рассматриваются потенциальное значение операций стыковки и сближения (RPO), соотношение сил противоспутникового оружия (ASAT), а также в сфере радиоэлектронной борьбы в сфере киберпространства. Авторы приходят к выводу, что наибольшая угроза исходит от искаженного восприятия действий в космосе контрагентами. Космическую сферу невозможно отделить от политических процессов, происходящих на Земле. Авторы также рассматривают потенциал возможностей мер по укреплению доверия, снижению рисков и даже контролю над вооружениями в сфере космической деятельности.

The article deals with the unfolding race for military, technological, and political infl uence in space. Great powers have competed in space since the dawn of the Space Age. Today we are once again faced with the possibility of space warfi ghting, but there are more than two players in the game now and civil infrastructure depends on space more than ever before. Theoretical space war threats are often analysed through an assessment of possible targets. And there are real-life challenges and threats here, including but not limited to rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), existing destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities, non-destructive electronic warfare, and cyber and jamming capabilities. The greatest threat, though, comes from simple misperceptions of actions in space by diff erent actors. Space cannot be separated from dynamics on Earth, but there might be some room for space-specifi c confi dence-building, risk reduction and even arms control measures.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.