imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-3-142-156imi-502Research ArticleОБЗОРНЫЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ESSAY«Разделенный субъект»: причины усугубления кризиса российско- американских отношений при Д. ТрампеUnderstanding the Escalation статьи in U.S.-Russian Relations during the D. Trump Era: Unpacking the “Split Subject” PhenomenonЦацуринА. О.TsatsurinA. O.

Александр Олегович Цацурин, атташе Первого Европейского департамента МИД России

119200, г. Москва, Смоленская-Сенная пл., 32-34

Alexander Olegovich Tsatsurin, Attaché of the First European Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Russia

119200, Moscow, Smolenskaya-Sennaya square, 32-34

aotsatsurin@mid.ruМИД РоссииРоссияRussian Ministry of Foreign Affairs RussiaRussian Federation202310122023143142156Copyright © Цацурин А.О., 20232023Цацурин А.О.Tsatsurin A.O.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/502

Неожиданная победа Д. Трампа на президентских выборах 2016 г. усугубила поляризацию американского общества и вашингтонского политического истеблишмента, что имело прямые последствия для отношений между Москвой и Вашингтоном. Политическая система США выдержала «стресс-тест», вызванный президентством Д. Трампа, однако на годы его администрации пришлось обострение российско-американского противостояния: межведомственные каналы связи оказались дисфункциональны, а санкционный режим с принятием закона CAATSA ужесточился. Это привело к тому, что расчеты Москвы на нормализацию и ее попытки прийти к компромиссу сменились осознанием неизбежности военно-политической конфронтации. Для объяснения причин упадка в двусторонних отношениях в статье выдвигается следующая гипотеза: вследствие разобщенности американских политических элит в реализации курса на российском направлении приняли участие четыре непримиримых группы интересов – сам президент Д. Трамп, республиканские «ястребы», оппозиционно настроенный бюрократический аппарат и демократы в Конгрессе. Каждая из этих групп действовала в угоду собственных интересов, порой консолидируясь, чтобы обойти президента. Этот феномен в статье называется «разделенным субъектом». Автор приходит к выводу, что невозможность наладить диалог с Вашингтоном в период президентства Д. Трампа была обусловлена «разделением субъекта», выступающего в качестве актора внешней политики. Победа Дж. Байдена на выборах 2020 г. и сформировавшаяся в американских партийных элитах сплоченность на фоне российско-украинского кризиса нейтрализовали упомянутый феномен. Однако автор задается вопросом, исчезнет ли «разделенность» при победе Трампа или его ближайших соратников на президентских выборах 2024 г. в США.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election intensifi ed the divide within American society and the political climate in Washington, causing a signifi cant impact on the relationship between Moscow and Washington. Despite the US political system overcoming the challenges faced during Trump’s presidency, there was also a surge in tensions between the US and Russia. The deterioration of bilateral relations can be attributed to the dysfunctional interagency communication channels and the tightening of sanctions through the CAATSA law. Moscow ultimately shifted its stance from aspiring to normalization to recognizing the likelihood of military-political confrontation. This article presents a hypothesis that comprehensively explains the factors contributing to this shift. The hypothesis underscores the lack of coherence among American political leaders, as four unique interest groups – President Trump, Republican hawks, oppositional bureaucrats, and Democratic Congress members – all contribute to shaping US policy toward Russia. Each group advances its specifi c objectives, sometimes joining forces to bypass the president’s policies. Consequently, a “split subject” phenomenon emerges in US-Russian aff airs. The author concludes that the lack of constructive dialogue with Washington during Trump’s presidency was due to the “split subject.” The victory of J. Biden in the 2020 elections and the alignment of American bipartisan elites amid the Russian-Ukrainian confl ict temporarily shifted this phenomenon to the background. Nevertheless, the author raises the question of whether this “cleavage” might reemerge if Trump or his close associates win the 2024 US presidential election.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.