imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-4-52-74imi-517Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESКлиматические изменения как новый фактор международных отношенийClimate Change as a New Factor of International RelationsМакаровИ. А.MakarovI. A.

Игорь Алексеевич Макаров, к.э.н., руководитель Департамента мировой экономики, заведующий Лабораторией экономики изменения климата

119017, Москва, ул. Малая Ордынка, 17

Igor A. Makarov, PhD (Econ.), Head of School of World Economy, Head of Laboratory for Economics of Climate Change

17, Malaya Ordynka street, Moscow, 119017

imakarov@hse.ruШурановаА. А.ShuranovaA. A.

Анна Артёмовна Шуранова, младший научный сотрудник Лаборатории экономики изменения климата

119017, Москва, ул. Малая Ордынка, 17

Anna A. Shuranova, Junior research fellow, Laboratory for Economics of Climate Change

17, Malaya Ordynka street, Moscow, 119017

ashuranova@hse.ruНИУ ВШЭРоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation2023250320241445274Copyright © Макаров И.А., Шуранова А.А., 20242024Макаров И.А., Шуранова А.А.Makarov I.A., Shuranova A.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/517

Изменение климата и связанная с ним «зеленая» трансформация мировой экономики оказывают возрастающее влияние на международные отношения, в особенности после заключения Парижского соглашения в 2015 году. Параллельно с физическими рисками, исходящими непосредственно от негативных последствий климатических изменений, для государств актуализируются риски переходные, связанные с потенциальным ущербом для общества, политической системы и экономики от процессов глобального «зеленого» перехода. Для устранения физических рисков критически недостаточно текущих обязательств государств, взятых в рамках Парижского соглашения. Усиление же этих рисков ведет к повышению значимости обеспечения климатической безопасности государств. Переходные риски тесно связаны с фрагментацией мировой политики, возникающей вследствие разности климатических амбиций и несогласия между государствами на предмет масштабов и методов декарбонизации. В основе противоречий лежат такие факторы, как обеспеченность ископаемым топливом и место государств в энергетической геополитике; уровень социально-экономического развития; потенциал для использования возможностей «зеленой» трансформации; участие в международных климатических соглашениях и объединениях. Перед целым рядом рисков оказывается и Россия, вследствие чего ее интересы лежат в плоскости развития и продвижения собственного видения процессов декарбонизации, а также консолидации незападных государств в этой сфере.

This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.

мировая климатическая политикадекарбонизациямеждународный климатический режимфизические рискипереходные рискиклиматическая безопасностьэнергетический переходinternational climate politicsdecarbonizationinternational climate change regimephysical riskstransition risksclimate securityenergy transitionВ данной научной работе использованы результаты проекта «Декарбонизация в странах- импортерах и странах-экспортерах ископаемого топлива: различия в подходах и возможности выработки совместных практик», выполненного в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ в 2023 г. Авторы выражают благодарность за поддержку Факультету мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ.The article draws on the results of the project “Decarbonization in importing and exporting countries of fossil fuels: diff erences in approaches and opportunities for developing joint practices,” carried out within the framework of the HSE Basic Research Program in 2023. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.