imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-4-149-160imi-523Research ArticleОБЗОРНЫЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ESSAYГипотеза «ядерной зимы» и ответственная политика в ядерной сфере“Nuclear Winter” Hypothesis Research and Responsibilities in Nuclear PolicyГинзбургА. С.GinzburgA. S.

Александр Самуилович Гинзбург, д.ф.-м.н., заведующий лабораторией математической экологии и главный научный сотрудник

Москва, Пыжевский пер. 3, 119017

Alexander Samuilovich Ginzburg, PhD in Physics and Mathematics, Head of the Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology and Senior Research Fellow

3, Pyzhevsky Lane, Moscow, 119017

gin@ifaran.ruСамойловскаяН. А.SamoylovskayaN. A.

Наталья Александровна Самойловская, младший научный сотрудник Института международных исследований

Москва, проспект Вернадского 76, 119454

Natalya Alexandrovna Samoylovskaya, Junior Researcher, Institute for International Studies

76, Vernadsky avenue, Moscow, 119454

n.samoylovskaya@inno.mgimo.ruИнститут физики атмосферы им. А.М. Обухова (ИФА) РАНРоссияA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation202325032024144149160Copyright © Гинзбург А.С., Самойловская Н.А., 20242024Гинзбург А.С., Самойловская Н.А.Ginzburg A.S., Samoylovskaya N.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/523

В 1980-х гг. одной из основополагающих тем научных дебатов стало обсуждение глобальных последствий ядерной войны. Именно тогда появилась гипотеза «ядерной зимы», в рамках которой ученые пытались проанализировать теоретическую возможность резкого похолодания на Земле после массовых пожаров и найти природные аналоги потенциальной климатической катастрофы. В последующие десятилетия гипотеза «ядерной зимы» проходила разные этапы критики и переоценки. К началу 2000-х гг. исследования проблематики стали носить региональный характер и были посвящены преимущественно возможным последствиям локальных ядерных конфликтов. Авторы анализируют в статье этапы становления исследований гипотезы «ядерной зимы», обращая внимание на российский и американский подходы, и приходят к выводу, что массив работ, сформированный американскими и советскими учеными в 1983–1985 гг., относится к первым попыткам концептуальных осмыслений научным сообществом проблемы ответственной политики в ядерной сфере.

In the 1980s, one of the fundamental topics of scientific debate was the discussion of the global consequences of nuclear war. At that time, the hypothesis of “nuclear winter” emerged, in which scientists attempted to analyse the theoretical possibility of a sharp cooling of the Earth after mass fires, and to find natural analogues of a potential climatic catastrophe. In the following decades, the “nuclear winter” hypothesis went through various stages of criticism and reassessment. In the early 2000s, studies of the problem became regional in nature, focusing mainly on the possible consequences of local nuclear conflicts. In this article, the authors analyse the stages of development of research on the “nuclear winter” hypothesis, focusing on the Russian and American approaches, and conclude that the body of work produced by American and Soviet scientists in 1983–1985 represents the first attempts by the scientific community to conceptualise the problem of responsible nuclear policy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.