imiМеждународная аналитикаJournal of International Analytics2587-84762541-9633MGIMO University10.46272/2587-8476-2025-16-4-114-128imi-675Research ArticleИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИRESEARCH ARTICLESЭлекторальная культура и трансформация демократических институтов в Индонезии в контексте всеобщих выборов 2024 годаElectoral Culture and Transformation of D emocratic Institutions in Indonesia in the Context of the 2024 General ElectionsКуклинН. С.KuklinN. S.

Никита Сергеевич Куклин, к.и.н., эксперт Центра АСЕАН ИМИ, доцент Кафедры востоковедения

119454, Москва, пр. Вернадского, 76

Nikita S. Kuklin, PhD (Hist.), Expert, ASEAN Centre, Institute for International Studies, Associate Professor, Department of Asian and African Studies

76, Vernadsky avenue, Moscow, 119454

ns.kuklin@inno.mgimo.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation202515032026164114128Copyright © Куклин Н.С., 20262026Куклин Н.С.Kuklin N.S.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/675

Президентские и парламентские выборы в Индонезии 2024 г. продемонстрировали уникальные особенности демократического транзита в крупнейшем государстве-архипелаге мира. Победа Прабово Субианто с результатом 58,59 % голосов в первом туре стала возможной благодаря специфической электоральной культуре Индонезии, сочетающей элементы традиционного консенсуса элитарных групп (индон. musyawarah-mufakat) и самобытных демократических институтов, сформировавшихся после периода Реформации 1998–2004 годов. Проведенный анализ демонстрирует парадоксальность индонезийского транзита: при технически успешном проведении выборов политическая система столкнулась с углублением структурных противоречий между основными центрами влияния. Электоральный процесс выявил трансформацию политической культуры элит в сторону прагматического ситуативного союзничества, при котором идеологические расхождения отступают перед конъюнктурными интересами. Установлено, что устойчивость индонезийской демократической модели определяется механизмом конкурентного взаимодействия политических сил и институциональными практиками их сдерживания, что компенсирует сохраняющуюся напряженность в межэлитарных отношениях. При этом внутриполитические последствия выборов на современном этапе частично нивелируются внешнеполитическими достижениями Индонезии и успешной персональной дипломатией президента Прабово.

The 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections in Indonesia have demonstrated the unique features of democratic transition in the world’s largest archipelagic state. Prabowo Subianto’s victory with 58.59 % of votes in the first round was possible due to Indonesia’s specific electoral culture, which combines elements of traditional elite consensus (Ind. musyawarah-mufakat) and distinctive democratic institutions formed after the Reformasi period of 1998–2004. The conducted analysis reveals the paradox of Indonesia’s transition: despite the technically successful conduct of elections, the political system faced deepening of structural contradictions between the main centers of influence. The electoral process exposed a transformation in elite political culture toward pragmatic situational alliances, where ideological differences recede before conjunctural interests. The study reveals that the resilience of Indonesia’s democratic model is determined by competitive interaction among political forces and institutional practices of checks and balances, which altogether compensate for persisting tensions in inter-elite relations. Moreover, the domestic political consequences of the elections are partially offset by Indonesia’s foreign policy achievements and President Prabowo’s successful personal diplomacy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.