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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">imi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Международная аналитика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal of International Analytics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-8476</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9633</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46272/2587-8476-2026-17-1-98-122</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">imi-692</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Стратегии великих держав: наступательное господство и снижение угрозы «вклинивания» на Ближнем Востоке</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Great Power Strategies: Offensive Dominance and Threat-Reduction Wedging in the Middle East</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Халфа</surname><given-names>А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Khalfa</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ахмед Халфа – инженер-исследователь, Уральский институт гуманитарных наук620002,  г. Екатеринбург, ул. Мира, 19</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ahmed Khalfa – Research Associate, Ural Institute of Humanities</p><p>19, Mira Street, Yekaterinburg,  620002</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>05</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>17</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>98</fpage><lpage>122</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Халфа А., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Халфа А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Khalfa A.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/692">https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/692</self-uri><abstract><p>В исследовании рассматривается, как растущая поляризация международной системы формирует конкуренцию великих держав на Ближнем Востоке. Зависимость т.н. клиентов от Вашингтона в вопросах внутренней и внешней безопасности позволяет США проводить наступательную стратегию доминирования, направленную на установление регионального порядка, соответствующего ключевой цели – сдерживанию Китая и России. В ответ Пекин и Москва используют особую форму противодействия, направленную на снижение восприятия угрозы клиентами и содействие разрешению конфликтов. Эта стратегия ориентирована на изменение асимметричной модели зависимости в альянсах США на Ближнем Востоке за счет повышения автономии клиентов и сотрудничества с Китаем и Россией там, где интересы совпадают. Саудовско-иранское сближение иллюстрирует потенциал такого «вклинивания», в то время как израильский пример демонстрирует его пределы. В целом эффективность стратегий Китая и России остается крайне ограниченной по сравнению с США из-за проекции военного потенциала США и зависимости региональных игроков. </p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This study examines how the escalating polarization of the international system shapes great power competition in the Middle East and influences regional outcomes. It argues that the U.S. hegemonic position in the region and its superior power projection, reinforced by regional factors such as established alliance systems and U.S. clients’ reliance on Washington for internal and external security, enable the United States to pursue an offensive dominance strategy aimed at establishing a regional order to contain China and Russia. Through this strategy, Washington seeks to transform its alliances with client regimes into a competitive alliance against Beijing’s and Moscow’s influence, while these regimes’ high dependence on U.S. protection often compels compliance with U.S. global interests even when such compliance conflicts with their national interests. However, global systemic constraints, including China’s and Russia’s non-regional hegemonic status and their limited power projection relative to the United States, prevent them from pursuing similar offensive strategies. Traditional wedge approaches are insufficient, given the high dependence of U.S. regional clients on U.S. protection. In response, Beijing and Moscow are employing a novel form of threatreduction wedging designed to lower clients’ threat perceptions, facilitate conflict resolution, and foster a more independent regional order. This strategy seeks to rebalance U.S. alliances and their ability to cooperate with China and Russia. The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement illustrates the potential of threat-reduction wedging, while the Israeli case highlights its limits. Overall, the effectiveness of China’s and Russia’s strategy remains extremely constrained relative to that of the United States. </p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Ближний Восток</kwd><kwd>великие державы</kwd><kwd>наступательное господство</kwd><kwd>стратегия сдерживания угроз</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Middle East</kwd><kwd>great powers</kwd><kwd>offensive dominance</kwd><kwd>threat-reduction wedging strategy</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Aarts, Paul. “The Middle East: A Region Without Regionalism or the End of Exceptionalism?” Third World Quarterly 20, no. 5 (1999): 911–925.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Aarts, Paul. “The Middle East: A Region Without Regionalism or the End of Exceptionalism?” Third World Quarterly 20, no. 5 (1999): 911–925.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Alford, Jonathan. “Security Dilemmas of Small States.” The World Today 40, no. 8/9 (1984): 363–369.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Alford, Jonathan. “Security Dilemmas of Small States.” The World Today 40, no. 8/9 (1984): 363–369.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Al-Rasheed, Madawi. 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