Game of Thrones in the Gas Market: How Qatar Plans to Maintain Its Leading Position in LNG Exports

In 2024, Qatar announced a third significant expansion of its LNG production planned over  the next six years. While this decision raises concerns about potential shifts in global and regional LNG markets, particularly regarding oversupply and price pressures, the expansion aligns with similar growth in other countries, such as the United States. Oversupply may hinder long-term contracts, which are crucial for Qatar’s stable export revenues. As new LNG volumes enter the market from 2025 to 2035, Doha will need to renegotiate existing contracts, which raises concerns about market oversaturation. However, the study suggests that Qatar’s strategy is forward-looking, extending beyond the anticipated oversupply crisis of the late 2020s to include the 2030– 2050 period. The projected surplus may be temporary, and Qatar seems well-positioned to adjust to market conditions. This proactive ‘all-in’ approach aims to enhance Qatar’s market share ahead of competitors once the market stabilizes post-oversupply, with some scenarios even indicating potential future deficits. However, apart from the economic dimension, the current decision by Doha to expand its LNG production infrastructure will also have a serious impact on Qatar’s relations with the US, the EU and China, increasing the role of the latter as a potential partner and possibly weakening Qatar-EU ties.

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