Prospects for the UK Cooperation with the Scandinavian-Baltic States after Brexit

The article is devoted to analyzing various aspects of the impact of Brexit consequences on the states of the Scandinavian-Baltic region and the prospects for relations with them. It is noted that Brexit may lead to a slowdown in the economic growth of the countries of the region, but it will not be significant. At the same time, given the small scale of the economies and their dependence on the external economic situation, the Baltic countries will experience a relatively greater negative impact than the highly developed innovative economies of the Nordic states. Revision of the priorities for the EU funding will also lead to a decrease in subsidies within the framework of the cohesion policy and the implementation of infrastructure projects, which can be painful for the economies of the Baltic states. A change in the direction of migration flows from these countries is also highly likely. As for security and defense cooperation, changes are unlikely here, since the UK has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the principles of collective defense within NATO. However, a reduction in the number of channels of interaction and coordination of positions in international affairs (as a natural consequence of withdrawal from EU political institutions) is likely to intensify UK participation in other formats of regional political and defense cooperation (NB+1, JEF, NORDEFCO, etc.).

Brexit, European integration, Baltic states, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Northern European states, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark

1. Anan’eva E. Brekzit: prostye reshenija slozhnyh voprosov. Analiticheskaja zapiska. 2016. No. 15 (No. 45) [Brexit: simple solutions to complex issues. Policy Brief. 2016. No. 15.] / Institut Evropy RAN [Institute of Europe, RAS]. URL: http://instituteofeurope.ru/images/uploads/analitika/an45.pdf (in Russian).

2. Andreeva T. N. Problema ogranichenija trudovoj migracii kak osnovnaja prichina Brekzita [The problem of restricting labor migration as the main cause of Brexit]. Mirovaja jekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija. 2017. Vol. 61. No. 8. P. 57–66. (in Russian).

3. Busygina I. M., Klimovich S. A. Koalicija vnutri koalicii: strany Baltii v Evrosojuze [Coalition within the coalition: Baltic states in the European Union]. Baltijskij region [Baltic region]. 2017. Vol. 9. No. 1. P. 7–26. (in Russian).

4. Lindsell J. The Norwegian Way. A case study for Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Civitas. Institute for the Study of Civil Society. February 2015. 105 p. URL: http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/TheNorwegianWay.pdf

5. Nordic responses to Brexit: Making the best of a difficult situation. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Policy Brief #7, 2018. 4 p. URL: https://www.nupi.no/en/Publications/CRIStin-Pub/Nordic-responses-to-Brexit-Makingthe-best-of-a-difficult-situation

6. Oskolkov P. V. Jestonija: pravye populisty v «strannoj koalicii» [Estonia: right-wing populists in the “strange coalition”]. Nauchno-analiticheskij vestnik IE RAN [Scientific and Analytical Herald of the Institute of Europe RAS]. 2019. No. 6. P. 47–52. (in Russian).

7. Sahramaa S. The Effect of Brexit on the Strategic Choices of Finnish Companies Operating in Britain. The uncertainty strikes back (Master?s Thesis in International Business). University of Turku. 07.09.2018. 60 p. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ca/376c208201c56124c38808d86e7094d28b27.pdf?_ga=2.60335021.144506152.1581283566-214509472.1581283566

8. Vandenbussche H. Sector-Level Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on the EU-28. University of Leuven, Belgium. June 2019. 46 p. URL: https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf

9. Vorotnikov V. V., Gabarta A. A. Vlijanie trudovoj migracii na social’no-jekonomicheskoe razvitie Pol’shi i stran Pribaltiki posle 2004 goda [The impact of labor migration on the socio-economic development of Poland and the Baltic countries after 2004]. Sovremennaja Evropa [Contemporary Europe]. 2016. No. 6. P. 125-136. (in Russian).