SOCIOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENT VIS-À-VIS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: HISTORICAL TRACK AND CONTEMPORARY SITUATION
The author suggests a new version of the typology of political regimes originally formulated by D. North. The main distinction of the proposed taxonomy from that of North, which is based on politico-economical analysis, is the introduction of a new element of classification, namely, “post-revolutionary” regimes.
The paper treats European history as a process of gradual spreading of “extended access order” from West to East of Europe under a condition of existence of an intermediate zone within which “post-revolutionary regimes” are realized.
The current situation on the territories neighboring to Russia is characterized by a high degree of turbulence in the sphere of international interaction. A dynamic “mixture” of positive and negative (from the viewpoint of international security and sustainable economic growth) phenomena, intensification of international interaction against the background of strengthening international competition have led to the formation in 2014-2015 of a specific amalgamation of traditional, modern, and brand new trends in the development of Russia and her close neighbors.
In the context of integration processes in Eurasian space, the multilateral cooperation within the CIS and EAEU formats presupposes a consolidation of all members’ efforts to realize common goals. As far as Russia is concerned, her regional leadership is equal to the ability to serve as a model for typologically similar countries. The primary and most important condition of retaining Russia’s influence upon both the CIS countries and the world community as a whole is an exemplary decision of problems of her own development, taking also into consideration the necessity to oppose external challenges.
THE FEVERISH PULSE OF NEAR AND MIDDLE EAST
The paper suggests a systemic analysis of the perspectives of development of situation in Post-Soviet Central Asia. Interconnection between the tendencies in different spheres (political, economic, military, social and demographic) is analyzed. The author ascertain the fact of complex and multilateral crisis and also states high degree of uncertainty of further development of regional situation, which is indicated by a great variability of scenarios of further development. The analysis is fulfilled both in short- and long-term perspectives. The study is carried out in two steps: for each of temporal perspectives respective drivers that presently exist are selected. Also, potential qualitative discontinuities that can lead to principal changes of situation are defined within scenario analysis.
The article analyzes the main trends that determine the dynamics of transformation processes and the future of the entire Middle East region. Projected scenarios are examined through the prism of Russian foreign policy and strategic interests.
It has become even more evident that the American scheme of the new world order, including the Middle East, is unviable. Strengthening of Islamic radical organizations and expanded range of their activities were connected with the coming to power of the Obama administration. In Iraq, Syria, the former confrontation has entered a new phase and become even more acute. In 2014, «Islamic State» (ISIS) has begun a largescale expansion, as a result of the bloody battles part of the territory of these countries came under the control of the Islamists. The effectiveness of the fight against the ISIS is due to a combination of political, military, economic and social measures. Furthermore, it should be coordinated internationally. The coordination of anti-terrorist activities of Russia with the countries of East and West can bring positive results.
Resolving of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has reached a deadlock. The fundamental unwillingness of governments, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, to go to any concessions to the Palestinians eventually led to the predictable surge in violence between the conflicting parties in the autumn of 2015, which many political observers and analysts attributed to the beginning of the third intifada.
In the depths of the Arabian monarchies there are complex social and economic processes. In the period of generational change in some GCC countries the problem of succession is quite acute. In the south of the Arabian Peninsula an assessment of the current difficult situation in Yemen suggests that the least painful exit for this country is federalization. In the final part of the article the system lag of the region in economic development is considered as a further challenge to the states of the Middle East.
Turkey carried away by the role of the model for Sunni states aimed at becoming the leader of Islamic world and reestablishing the Ottoman Empire’s sphere of influence. Ankara distinctly changed priorities of its foreign policy in favor of the Middle East and pursued a course of gradual dissociation from the West subject to its own views at world and regional situation. Ankara’s task was not to exceed the limits of Western alliance, but for all that to advance at most its national interests. Turkey’s political leaders systematically used any opportunity to promote neoosmanist aspirations and the model of Turkish democracy in the Middle East and Northern Africa. The dynamic development of Turkish economy supported this process. However at this time the goals of Turkish neoosmanist policy are unachievable because of their excessive ambition and lack of resources for their realization.
The paper briefly outlines the history of relationships between Christianity and Islam in the Middle East, the birthplace of both great religions. For many centuries these relationships were characterized by the atmosphere of tolerance, moderation, and dialogue. Christians in Islamic world, in spite of sporadically emerging tensions and conflicts, historically were always a significant and respectable social and cultural group.
The conditions of Christians, and especially Orthodox Christians, seriously aggravated in the second half of the 19th century. Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians who were the victims of Young Turkish genocide of the First World War were mostly Christians. The 20th century saw the exodus of Christians from the Middle East the dynamics of which in the last decades is becoming more and more impressive.
The paper adduces numerous examples of worsening positions of Christian Communities in the Middle East, together with an analysis of reasons behind this state of affairs. The question of chances to slow down the negative developments is also considered at some length.TOWARDS A NEW QUALITY OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IN DIGITAL AGE. PROCEEDINGS OF THE CONFERENCE
Foreword by Andrey Krutskih, Special Representative of the President of Russia for international cooperation in the field of information security, Ambassador-at-Large, PhD in History.
The article investigates the problem of Science and Technology impact on International Relations. Special attention was drawn to International Science and Technology Relations in Digital Era. They are developing within the context of Global Information Revolution and transition to Multipolar World. In the prospective part the article deals with transformation of International Science and Technology Relations and establishment of Global Technology Alliance. The latter could include creation of Global Technology Fund, renovation of Global Technology Transfer and broadening of Global Cloud Technology Resource.
The article investigates the challenges and risks to international security arising from the development of the global information society. The basic trends of the global information society development are analyzed, as well as theoretical approaches to the theory of information society. The author also assesses the impact of the global information society development on the world politics. The paper examines the main challenges, risks and threats arising from the development of the global information society, as well as the prospects for international cooperation in the field of international information security.
The article describes principles and methods of using social media as a «soft power 2.0» which is considered as an effective tool to achieve political goals of the state. Particularly increasing today is the risk of destructive informational influence threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any state. As a consequence, individuals and society as a whole are also exposed to negative information impact.
The Article is devoted to new nonconventional types of weapon, in the accelerated order of the defensive innovations developed in the USA according to Strategy of national security the 2015 and Third initiative defense innovation. Practical steps on creation of new type of behavioral weapon, laying on a joint of use of technologies of Big Data, intellectual calculations and last achievements of social and behavioral psychology are analyzed.
The article investigates the political problem of U.S. domination in global cyberspace. The author deals with historical questions of U.S. Cybercommand build up and military strategies of cyberwarfare applications. Special attention attracted to political analysis of American information systems vulnerability.
This article discusses megatrends of information globalization as a multidimensional process. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have become the driver of the fifth technological order of civilization and the foundation of the sixth. In addition to the undoubted positive for socialization of humanity ICT have generated a fundamentally new threats - infogens. In the face of the deteriorating of international situation has sharply increased role of strengthening of the international information security (IIS). Offensive approaches of NATO and the United States to the problem of the IIS are radically different from the peace approaches of Russia and its partners in the SCO.
ISSN 2541-9633 (Online)