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Journal of International Analytics

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No 1 (2017)
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https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2017-0-1

МИРОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКА: ФАКТОРЫ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ И ДЕЗИНТЕГРАЦИИ

7-13 866
Abstract

Eurasian integration is Russia’s most important foreign policy project. In the face of economic sanctions, it faces additional difficulties. A very painful problem is overcoming the tendency to reduce mutual trade, since the reserves for the growth of mutual trade associated with the removal of administrative barriers have been exhausted, and the range of goods remains virtually unchanged. The development of trade within the EEU is hampered by a drop in world prices on commodity markets, which has led to a decrease in solvency within the Union. To overcome this negative trend can only be through a significant diversification of commodity exchange. Despite the abolition of customs borders between the members of the union, it was not possible to eliminate all exemptions and restrictions at the previous stages of the development of the EEU.

The sanctions regime introduced by the European Union and Russia’s response measures created additional problems in the development of the internal market of the EEU. One of the obstacles to Eurasian integration is the lack of activity of mutual investment activities. The goals set by the Eurasian integration should be clear, concrete, and, most importantly, achievable, and the results - tangible not only for governments and business circles, but also for the population of the countries concerned.

14-28 691
Abstract

This brief history of relations between the PRC and the Soviet Union (Russia) traces their evolution, starting with open hostility and ideology-driven debates of the 1960’s through normalization during the Gorbachev era, ending with trustful partnership and strategic cooperation at the turn of the 21st century under Yeltsin and Putin.

The central topic is the negotiations of 1964-2004 for the delimitation along the western and eastern parts of the boundary between China and Russia, which ended with signing and ratifying an agreement resolving all territorial disputes and demarcating the boundaries at their full length. Establishment of cross-border cooperation on a broad range of issues is described as the main priority for both countries, taking into consideration the fact that large territory of Russia including its Far East and Far North is in the scope of the newest Chinese ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative. The article analyses contents of this strategic initiative, its domestic and foreign economic implications. The history of military détente between China and Russia and confidence-building measures are described. Brief outline of the history of the SCO as well as the main concepts of its activities are also addressed. Several controversial questions concerning the possible trends of Sino-Russian cooperation in the current international situation are raised in the article.

29-41 1656
Abstract

Central Asia as a region has become a subject of scientific research not so long ago. Complicated historic background that includes the long period of being a part of another states influenced rather seriously the feeling of subjectivity of the countries of the region. As a result, after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 a difficult period commenced when the countries of the region started to construct their own political and economic relations with foreign counterparts including their neighbors, regional and global powers. During this more then 25-years long period of independence countries of Central Asia have accumulated rich experience of interaction with the US, China, Russia, the EU, Japan, South Korea and other states interested in the region in terms of their own national interests.

Besides bilateral relations with Central Asian states some of these countries are trying now to develop multilateral formats of interaction with the region. Divergent national interests, peculiarities of socioeconomic and political development of Central Asian states inevitably influence their relations with other countries and the efficiency of multilateral formats. “5+1” dialogues with Central Asian states are being developed by the US, the EU, Japan and South Korea. These formats differ in their goals, mechanisms, areas of cooperation and give participants possibilities to realize different national interests.

The paper presents an analysis of these formats aiming to reveal the principal interested actors, preliminary results and possibilities for further development. The analysis could be helpful for strategic planning of Russia’s approaches to relation with Central Asian states.

42-51 844
Abstract

The article considers a place and influence of Berber-speaking communities in each of five countries of the North Africa: Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Mauritania and Tunis.

After gaining the independence, demands are growing in all these states to recognize cultural, regional, and sometimes political peculiarities of Berbers.

The situation in every country is different due to local conditions and background of interactions of Amazigs (self-designation of Berber) with the Arab speaking majority, as well as their participation in political processes.

The author investigates and discuss the impact of the Arab Spring on the rise of self-consciousness, solidarity and consolidation of Amazig minority. It is Berber, often European educated elite which usually expresses and propagates such conceptions and trends.

52-57 1331
Abstract
Presently Kurdish motivation for the creation of a national state is showed more strongly than supreme power’s efforts on the centralization of Iraq and Syria. The regional government of Iraqi Kurdistan managed to seek after masses of powers which enabled to pursue an independent from federal establishment policy. Syrian Kurds checking the civil war in their territory aspire to the official legalization of autonomy. If areas populated by Kurds federate an autonomous region Syrian Kurdistan may be formed close to the border of Syria with Turkey. The federalization of Syria greatly endangers the territorial integrity of Turkey because at its south border the formation allied with Turkish Kurds will assume an official status. However, leading Middle Eastern and Western powers are concerned with the preservation of present Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish boundaries.

МОДЕЛИ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

58-75 677
Abstract

Since the ration between production and consumption of electricity in the context of present and future demands of various countries determines the level of their energy security, it is this ration which is the main object of the research reported in the article. The case of India, with its huge population, rapid economic growth of the last decade and obvious scarcity of energy resources is of special interest and importance. The consideration of different indicators of demographic situation in the country shows that the number of population and the dynamics of its growth are still the main factors which determine prospects for solution of India’s energy security problem -

The paper analyses the situation of energy demand and supply across all sources of energy available to India and identify the directions along which the most effective and efficient projects can be realized. Due to its obvious peculiarities, a special attention is paid to the nuclear program of Indian, and, particularly, to the supply of Uranium necessary for instigation of nuclear energy production. The importance of the current moment is emphasized, when, in the context of limited energy resources, both Indian Government and society should decide what segments of population and branches of economy are to be given priorities to in meeting their growing demands, and how the priorities can be realized.

RESEARCH ARTICLES

76-88 626
Abstract
The article describes a complex path of development of domestic «practical Oriental studies» in the second half of XIX – early XX centuries by the example of special classes Lazarev Institute. Passing during this time through several major transformations of special classes became a leading Russian educational institutions specializing in the preparation of the «Orientalists practitioners», future diplomats and officials, called to serve in the Middle East, and Eastern and southern outskirts of the Russian Empire. Hallmark special classes was the use in the educational process achievements as «academic» and «practical Oriental studies».
89-98 1759
Abstract
The article discusses the situation in the Caucasus that established by the summer of 1920, after the successful and rapid sovietization of Azerbaijan, as well as the actions of the Caucasus Bureau of the party, headed by Sergo Ordzhonikidze. Another focus of the article is the decision-making process in Moscow on the sovietization of Armenia and the relevant contacts with the new Turkish government of Mustafa Kemal. The article highlights the differences that existed within the Soviet leadership on the question of choosing the political line in relations with Armenia, and analyzes the position and actons of S. Ordzhonikidze, head of the Caucasian Bureau, who played a key role in the sovietization of the entire Transcaucasus region.
99-115 6817
Abstract

This article is an extension of the research material published in the previous issue of the Journal “International Analytics” (2016, vol. 3 (17), p. 45–58), and focused on the activity of the Jewish paramilitary groups in Palestine before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. Originally the conspiratorial Jewish extremist organization opposed the policy of the Jewish immigration restraint which had been carried out by the socialist countries, especially the USSR. Some ultra-Orthodox groups, such as the Union of Zealots, used openly the terrorist methods in the struggle against the development of Israel as a secular and democratic state. After the war of 1967 and the Israeli occupation of the Arab territories the orthodox-nationalists, who formed the vanguard of the “Movement for Greater Israel”, created an underground network of extremist armed organizations. From the beginning, the activities of these groups were contrary to the Israeli Law on the Fight against Terror. The term commonly used for the Jewish underground groups in Hebrew is “mahteret”. There have been several dozen groups of this kind in the history of the Israeli settlements movement. The most famous of them are “Kach” (“Thus”) and “Kahane Chai” (“Kahane Lives”).

The initiator and inspirer of the “Jewish Underground” was an American Orthodox Rabbi Meir Kahane. He founded a political settlement party “Kach” which had legally existed until in 1988 a ban on the list of its candidates in the parliamentary elections was imposed by the Supreme Court of Israel because of the accusations of the denial of the democratic character of the state of Israel and the promotion of racism. The activities of both organizations were declared terrorist and banned in the USA and some other countries.

The article analyses religious, philosophical and political routes of the modern ideology of Israeli orthodox nationalists who participate in the settlement movement on the occupied Arab territories as well as the illegal activities of the most famous parties and organizations supporting the policy of the extension of the Israeli jurisdiction over the occupied Arab territories.

116-122 975
Abstract
On April 30 the United States and the World marked the 100th day in office of Donald Trump as President of the United States. The first 100 days are considered as a key indicator of the fortunes for a new President’s program. This article briefly reviews the 2016 campaign and election, the 11 week transition period, his first 100 days, a brief examination of both American-Russian relations and Sino-American relations, and lastly, what the future bodes for each under a Trump Presidency. The 100 Day period has been chaotic, shifting, and at times incoherent. He has made 180 degree shifts toward many major issues, including Russia and China, which has only confused numerous world leaders, including Presidents Putin and Xi. There has been a definite disconnection between what Trump says about Russia, and what his advisors and cabinet officials say. So far Trump has conducted a highly personalized and transactional foreign policy. All is up for negotiation at this a huge turning point in American foreign policy, the greatest one since 1945. Given all the world’s instabilities today, a rapprochement between the United States and Russia is a truly worthwhile objective, and should be strongly pursued.


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ISSN 2587-8476 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9633 (Online)