FACING THE CHANGES: EUROPE AND BEYOND
The article evaluates the qualitative changes in world politics during 2014-2015.
In the last two years the system of international relations encountered significant difficulties. Contradictions accumulated in different spheres of world politics that were usually treated as latent, arose in the agenda. The starting point of this transformation was the Ukrainian crisis. However, the further events force one to reassess not only its direct consequences but also wide processes at the global level. One of them is deterioration of relations between Russia and Western countries, increase of influence of large non-Western markets and strengthening of turbulence in developing countries. Project of the unipolar regulation, promoted by the US, demonstrates its ineffectiveness. The main point here is inability of the US to secure the stability of the international system without real consensus of all world powers. We witness an active blend of traditional and new challenges to the international security that decreases the controllability of the situation, first of all in regional segments of the world, Middle East and Europe in particular. These processes give ground for reformatting of the world development, and post-bipolar world politics is gaining a new face. We speak not about going back to pre-crisis order, but about step-by-step elimination of the American hegemony in global and regional decision-making. There will be deepening of the fragmentation of the world politics and growth of strife of the international relations that may continue in the mid-term perspective.
Article is devoted to complex research of new mechanisms of the European migration policy which underwent essential changes in process of increase of migratory streams. Now its main components are strengthening of measures against illegal migration, support of legal migration (in particular, simplification of entrance for highly qualified specialists), integration of already arrived migrants into West European society. Though migration policy is still one of the cornerstones of the general foreign policy of EU countries, legal regulation of illegal migration still fully doesn’t answer modern realities.
The paper reviews the EU response to the recent «refugee crisis» through the theoretical lens of restrictive and preventive approaches and the concept of the «external dimension» in EU migration policy. The author examines the EU’s response as an indicator of the effectiveness of current EU migration policy under crisis situations caused by massive flows of migrants. According to the author, the European institutions have not been able to offer quick and effective «European solution». EU is late with the development, implementation of the policy measures as well as with bringing of them to the European public in an appropriate way, allowing to prevent social protests against asylum seekers. As a result the refugee crisis has caused «the crisis of solidarity» in the EU. There is a gap to state between the European values and real readiness of the EU to adhere to them. Instead the strategy of burden sharing between member-states EU implements the strategy of burden shifting on Turkey. The progress made by the EU in the field of communitarisation of migration policy could prevent neither the escalation of migration crisis, nor its negative consequences regarding the interim collapse of Schengen and Dublin systems. In this situation, the return to the intergovernmental approach in regulation of certain sensitive domains of EU migration policy is possible. The nature of the EU response confirms that the «external dimension» of migration policy has been implemented mostly through a restrictive approach, while a preventive approach has been marginalizing.
“HARD POWER”: BACK TO THE AGENDA
In the context of developing crisis in Russian-Western relations and as a reaction towards events in Ukraine the NATO undertakes significant and multi-dimensional increase of its military arsenals and contingents on the eastern borders of the Alliance. Measures of strengthening the military potential involve Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. Necessity to finally withdraw from limitations imposed by RussiaNATO Founding Act are under debates. Simultaneously involvement of northern neutral states (Sweden, Finland) into the Alliance is activated. At the same time, analysis of political statements of the leadership of northern neutral countries does not yet confirm their intention to refuse from neutral status.
The article focuses on the relations between Russia and NATO against the background of a tense international situation. We pay attention to the consequences of the decisions taken at the summit in Wales in 2014, in particular, increasing of national defense expenditures. The duality in NATO’s approach towards Russia is maintained. Some NATO countries want to resume political dialogue with Russia, as they believe that this will contribute to the peace and security in Europe. By contrast, another group of NATO members, mainly the new ones from Eastern Europe, insist on a full freeze of the dialogue. They want NATO to serve the only goal - to contain and deter Russia. The final choice of the vector will depend on the implementation of the Minsk agreements designed to stop the bloodshed in the East of Ukraine.
The article analyses a concept of Conventional Prompt Global Strike aimed at developing weapons systems that can deliver a conventional warhead anywhere in the world within an hour as a prioritized part of the US military strategy. The Pentagon planners believe that deployment of CPGS weapon would allow a selective and far more effective response to post-cold war threats, such as international terrorist networks, “rogue states” and other adversaries, thus drastically reducing reliance on nuclear deterrent in a number of situations. Over the years the Pentagon’s R&D activities in this area encompassed numerous established and emerging weapon technologies, including use of surface-launched and sea-launched strategic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles. The CPGS program is raising serious concerns in Moscow, where Russian officials consider it as a threat to Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenals and national security interests alongside with the US plans to develop and deploy global ballistic missile defense capabilities and attack weapons in space. Moscow predicts it could undermine strategic balance and trigger a nonnuclear arms race.
The article is devoted to some critical aspects of correspondence of the Alliance status to the basic norms of international law. It also centers on specific actual steps of the realization of the NATO long-term strategy of «openness» in interrelations with the existing universal and regional institutionalized regimes of limitations in the sphere of international security and arms control. Special attention is paid to the NATO strategy of abstention from the direct participation in critical processes of negotiations in the sphere of arms control and limitations on destabilizing military activities. The NATO, as an organization of permanent nature, stands for the position of non-responsibility for the compliance of obligations in this sphere by its member-states. Decomposition of these artificial obstacles is an unavoidable condition for the NATO responsible inclusions in processes of arms control and reduction of large-scale military activities within the OCSE competence.
The problems of antimissile defense constitutes one of the key issues of global arms control domain of today. No advancement toward the lowering of global military threat, reciprocal reduction of nuclear weapons’ arsenals and the solving of contemporary tasks in the vast realm of today’s strategic stability are feasible, if a suitable arrangement on it is not to be found. At the same time, this conundrum is the major irritant in the Russia-West interrelationship, first and foremost, in our dealings with the NATO military-political alliance led by the USA. Therefore, finding the mutually acceptable solutions to this end would have promoted the consolidation of mutual trust and created the prerequisites for moving toward a safer and more stable world. The paper suggests a set of specific urgent steps that would show the ways out of the current negotiating impasse related to the ABM problematic and created the basis for a potential agreement while not afflicting the national security of any state in the world.
NEAR EAST : VARIABLES AND CONSTANTS OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS
Sunni and Shiite disagreements are incited, first of all, by the Western countries to keep control over the situation in the region. It is an example of exploitation of a religious factor in the political goals.
One of the Arab Spring consequences that shocked Middle East region was an ouster of some autocratic rulers with Libyan leader M. Qaddafi among them. Libya suffered the crash of its state institutes; vacuum of rule has actually emerged. Against this background the country witnessed a starting of destruction processes. They caused systematic crises and conflicts inside new authorities which strongly aggravated since summer of 2014.
The article is about to examine turbulent events which resulted in poising of dual power in 2014.The two opposing poles of power emerged in Libya: one -in Tripoli, another – in Tobruk (the East of the country), each with its own parliament, government and military forces.
The author analyses the ongoing conflict between these two blocks which had already caused numerous casualties among both military and civil personal. The picture of balance of power is patchy and volant that makes the further course of confrontation between opponents extremely unpredictable.
It is hard to expect a hopeful forecast for fastest cession of the conflict and normalizing of common situation in Libya.
The author also examines some efforts of the United Nations to play a role of mediator to reconcile opposing sides and to restore the rule of integrated state.
This article studies the influence of religion on political and social processes in Israel. Modern Israel is a complicated multi-ethnic and multi-religious society. Israel is home to over 8 million people and approximately a quarter of its citizens are non-Jews (Muslim Arabs and Christian Arabs, Druze, Bedouins, Circassians and etc.). In spite of the fact that the Israeli system of law provides “the complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex”, many Arabs and other non-Jews citizens of the State are not really integrated into Israeli society and do not feel themselves full citizens of the State that seeks to position itself exclusively as a «Jewish State».
In addition the tension between Israel’s Middle Eastern and European identities is personified in the contradictions between Ashkenazim and Sephardim. There are also religious differences between Jews who identify themselves with the ultra-Orthodox, religious nationalists (so called “Hardelim” - an acronym of two words in Hebrew – “Hared” (ultra-orthodox) and “Leumi” (nationalist)), traditionalists and secular Jews. The article notes that the current «Likud» government supported by the religious parties actually strengthens the tendency to clericalization of Israeli political and social life.
The author also makes an attempt to understand and analyze the basic historical, philosophical and religious aspects of the National-Religious trend in Israeli politics. This trend turned into a powerful force after a Jewish religious fanatic Yigal Amir had killed Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995.
The research reveals the forms and methods, aims and objectives of the Israeli official settlement policy, determines the attitude of the religious parties and groups towards the settlement movement and indicates a negative influence of the settlement factor on the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process and political situation in the Middle East as well.
The article is devoted to the study of neo-Ottoman project in Turkey, as well feasibility of its implementation in regional policy. The paper gives a brief historical overview, suggests a comparative analysis of the main trends in modern foreign policy of Ankara, and explores differences and similarities of neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism on the modern stage. The article also highlights the actions of Turkey and some of their consequences on the Syrian track.
CAUCASIAN DYNAMICS: TRENDS, PROBLEMS, AND PROSPECTS (Papers from Caucasian Workshop)
Foreword. A new Caucasian workshop.
The article examines the political and socio-economic processes in Abkhazia in 2015. Special attention is given signed in November 2014 the Russian-Abkhaz Treaty on strategic partnership. Also examines the political process in Abkhazia, including the confrontation between the authorities and opposition, as well as the formation of new parties, claiming to be the third force. Given the short-term forecast of the situation in the Republic.
The article examines the current status of the Church schism in Abkhazia, given his assessment and the background to the emergence. Analyzes the arragment of forces and positions of outside players in this issue, as well as the prospects for its resolution.
ISSN 2541-9633 (Online)